As of Q3 2025, several key data series from Manheim (via Cox Automotive) provide useful context for commercial and fleet operators assessing remarketing dynamics and residual value trends.
The Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index (MUVVI) slipped marginally to 207.0 in September 2025, a 0.2% decline from August but still up 2% compared with September 2024.
On a non-seasonally adjusted basis, wholesale prices rose 0.1% month-over-month and were +2.1% year-over-year. Notably, the usual long-term monthly move is a decline of around 0.3%.
This suggests that depreciation patterns remain unusually shallow. Cox’s Deputy Chief Economist Jeremy Robb noted that wholesale values “remain elevated against normal depreciation trends… even as tax incentives on EVs come to an end.”
UNEVEN SEGMENT PERFORMANCE
Segment by segment, performance is uneven. Luxury vehicles remain the strongest performer, up ~2.3% year-over-year, followed by SUVs (+0.7%), while midsize cars fell ~0.6% and compact cars declined sharply by 6.5%.
From a fleet remarketing perspective, this divergence is meaningful: fleets weighted toward compact or mainstream sedan volumes are operating in a weaker residual-value environment, whereas those emphasizing luxury or SUVs can benefit from better relative outcomes.
USED EV RESILIENCE
Used-EV values have demonstrated especially strong resilience. They were up 6.4% year over year in September, outpacing non-EVs (+1%). The expiration of federal EV tax credits appears to have accelerated used-EV demand, supporting wholesale values even as other segments flatten.
For fleet managers, EV residuals are holding up better than those of many conventional vehicles in the current market, but this may be temporary.
WEAKENING DEMAND?
On the retail side, listings for used vehicles increased 1.5% over the past four weeks, yet unit volumes were down 3.9% compared to August and 2% versus a year ago.
At the wholesale level, days’ supply at auction reached 27 days in mid-October, down two days year-over-year but slightly higher than the end of September. These indicators suggest that while supply remains constrained and values elevated, demand may be weakening, especially as macro pressures (affordability, higher interest rates, shifting incentives) bite.
RELATIVELY STRONG RESIDUALS
For fleet and commercial organizations, several takeaways stand out. First, the elevated wholesale value baseline means residual valuations remain relatively strong, an advantage for near-term remarketing outcomes.
Second, segment mix matters: compact cars face headwinds, while luxury and SUVs are outperforming, at least at the moment.
Third, the end of EV tax incentives and the shift in consumer behavior signal that the tailwinds of 2024 to early 2025 may be moderating. Indeed, Cox Automotive’s forecast for full-year 2025 used-vehicle sales has been raised from 37.9 to 38.5 million units, but the outlook also flags caution on supply, affordability, and macro-risk.
RISING OFF-LEASE VOLUMES
Looking ahead into Q4 and early 2026, fleet operators should watch for rising off-lease volumes, shifts in residuals due to normalization of depreciation rates, and powertrain-specific dynamics (EVs vs. ICE).
Timing of fleet disposals may become more important: vehicles remarketed while wholesale values remain above historical norms may capture more value, whereas delaying may expose fleets to broader market softening.
In sum, the used-vehicle market remains in a position of strength relative to historical norms, but subtle signs of slowing and segment divergence mean fleet stakeholders should remain vigilant in their remarketing strategy and lifecycle planning.
Segment performance remains uneven. Luxury and EV segments led year-over-year gains in September 2025, while compact cars saw the sharpest declines.
Source: Cox Automotive/Manheim
Used-vehicle values remain elevated but are slowly normalizing. The Manheim Index stood
at 207.0 in September 2025, down slightly month over month but still about 2% higher
than a year earlier.
Source: Cox Automotive/Manheim
Wholesale Used Vehicale Price Trends
Average Wholesale Values (MMR)
|
September YTD |
2025 |
2024 |
2019 |
|---|---|---|---|
|
All |
$18,864 |
$18,408 |
$13,823 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
Total Cars |
$15,976 |
$15,377 |
$11,767 |
|
Compact Car |
$9,393 |
$9,741 |
$8,192 |
|
Fullsize Car |
$3,475 |
$3,446 |
$2,950 |
|
Luxury Car |
$21,104 |
$20,737 |
$17,135 |
|
Midsize Car |
$11,731 |
$11,845 |
$10,051 |
|
Sports Car |
$34,178 |
$31,117 |
$20,508 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
Total Trucks |
$21,369 |
$21,432 |
$15,826 |
|
Compact Van |
$11,845 |
$12,472 |
$10,854 |
|
Fullsize Van |
$18,571 |
$20,871 |
$15,252 |
|
Entry Van |
$14,960 |
$14,920 |
$12,706 |
|
Midsize Van |
$18,556 |
$18,156 |
$14,097 |
|
Luxury Van |
$29,533 |
$28,355 |
$21,610 |
|
Fullsize Van |
$29,425 |
$28,947 |
$19,560 |
|
Compact Pickup |
$22,999 |
$22,824 |
$13,620 |
|
Fullsize pickup |
$25,060 |
$24,909 |
$18,912 |
Wholesale Used Vehicale PriceTrends
2025 Versus:
|
September YTD |
2024 |
2019 |
|---|---|---|
|
All |
2.5% |
36.5% |
|
|
|
|
|
Total Cars |
3.9% |
35.8% |
|
Compact Car |
-3.6% |
14.7% |
|
Fullsize Car |
0.9% |
17.8% |
|
Luxury Car |
1.8% |
23.2% |
|
Midsize Car |
-1.0% |
16.7% |
|
Sports Car |
9.8% |
66.7% |
|
|
|
|
|
Total Trucks |
-0.3% |
35.0% |
|
Compact Van |
-5.0% |
9.1% |
|
Fullsize Van |
-11.0% |
21.8% |
|
Entry Van |
0.3% |
17.7% |
|
Midsize Van |
2.2% |
31.6% |
|
Luxury Van |
4.2% |
36.7% |
|
Fullsize Van |
1.7% |
50.4% |
|
Compact Pickup |
0.8% |
68.9% |
|
Fullsize pickup |
0.6% |
32.5% |
SOURCE: COX AUTOMOTIVE/MANHEIM
Average wholesale values rose 2.5% in 2025 versus 2024 and 36.5% compared with 2019. Cars outperformed trucks overall, led by sports and luxury models.
Percentage Change in Average Wholesale Values By Segment
SeptemberYTD
SOURCE: COX AUTOMOTIVE/MANHEIM
Despite year-over-year softening in several segments, wholesale values remain well above pre-pandemic benchmarks — with most categories still 30% to 70% higher than 2019 levels.
