Oil market conditions are expected to ease through 2026 as global inventories build and production continues to rise. Brent crude oil prices are forecast by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) to average about $62 per barrel in late 2025 and $52 per barrel in 2026, markingasignificant retreat from recent highs. Production growth is led by non-OPEC+ countries, while OPEC+ output gradually increases as earlier production cuts are unwound. In the United States, crude oil production is projected to remain near record levels, averaging 13.5 million barrels per day, supported by steady output from the Gulf of Mexico. These trends point to stable-to-lower gasoline and diesel prices through 2026, though OPEC+ supply discipline could moderate the pace of decline. Even as global fuel demand continues to grow, efficiency improvements and slower economic expansion in China and Europe are limiting upward pressure on prices. The International Energy Agency expects global oil consumption to rise modestly, about 1 million barrels per day annually through 2026, well below pre-pandemic growth rates. ■
Projected U.S. Average Retail Fuel Prices (Dollars per Gallon)
|
|
Q4 2025 |
Q1 2026 |
Q2 2026 |
Q3 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Diesel fuel |
$2.34 |
$2.06 |
$1.95 |
$2.07 |
|
Gas (reg. grade) |
$3.05 |
$2.75 |
$2.92 |
$2.99 |
WestTexas Intermediate Crude Oil Spot Price
West Texas crude oil prices peaked in 2022 before trending downward, while U.S. crude oil production continued to rise through 2025. Prices are projected to stabilize near $50 per barrel as production levels off at around 13.5 million barrels per day.
Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)
U.S. Crude Oil Production
U.S. oil production is forecast to hold near record highs through 2026, maintaining downward pressure on global crude prices.
Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)
