According to data and analysis from S&P Global Mobility, electrification in the U.S. will be delayed in the near to mid-term amid regulatory changes and industry challenges. However, the data projects long-term growth, particularly in light-duty vehicles. S&P’s 2025 powertrain forecast strikes a more cautious tone than last year’s outlook, which accounted for steady but regulation-driven battery-electric adoption.
S&P now cites policy uncertainty, delayed or eradicated EPA and CARB rules, supply-chain pressure, and charging bottlenecks as reasons diesel will persist longer than expected. Hybrids and plug-in hybrids gain share as transitional technologies bridging the gap to full zero-emission vehicles.
In the medium- and heavy-duty segments, diesel holds a 60% to 70% share through 2040, with BEV and fuel-cell adoption pushed back about five years compared with last year’s forecast.
The light-duty chart, new to the 2025-2026 Fact Book, reveals a diversified market mix. Battery-electric vehicles (BEVs) are expected to rise to about 25% to 30% of sales by 2030, while hybrids and plug-in hybrids surge to about 40% by 2035, then level off.
Internal-combustion engines (including mild hybrids) retain a significant share, especially in pickups and SUVs, where cost and range remain challenges. ■
Class 8 (Heavy-Duty Truck)
Diesel retains a strong majority share into the 2040s. BEV and fuel-cell adoption accelerate in the 2040 to 2060 window.
Source: S&P GLOBAL MOBILITY
Class 4–7 (Medium-Duty Truck)
Diesel remainsthe dominant technologythrough the 2030s, with hybrids and BEVs gaining share after 2040.
Source: S&P GLOBAL MOBILITY
Light-Duty Vehicle
Internal-combustion and mild hybrids (ICE/MHEV) steadily decline as hybrids and plug-in hybrids expand, while BEVs reach roughly one-quarter of sales by 2030.
Source: S&P GLOBAL MOBILITY
Notes: Light duty includes both retail and commercial. Projections are “best-case scenarios.” Data compiled September 2025 (light duty) and October 2025 (medium and heavy duty).
ICE/MHEV: Internal combustion engine and mild hybrid electricvehicle; HEV: Hybrid electricvehicle; BEV: Battery electricvehicle; PHEV: Plug-in hybrid electricvehicle;
REX: Range extended electricvehicle; FCEV: fuel-cell electricvehicle, CNG/LNG:compressed/liquid natural gas; H2-ICE: hydrogen-electric/hydrogen internal-combustion.
